Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-26 2.348381 2.756462 3.209571 3.749307 4.374044 5.073746 5.916156
2025-11-02 1.600887 2.111741 2.742733 3.576433 4.645787 5.967877 7.722667
2025-11-09 1.138738 1.659053 2.362292 3.375616 4.790596 6.687331 9.411905
2025-11-16 0.877337 1.392225 2.143789 3.309299 5.057025 7.562720 11.404609
2025-11-23 0.703124 1.203362 1.984673 3.276577 5.337191 8.467181 13.541112
2025-11-30 0.611481 1.118556 1.958940 3.428345 5.900564 9.846810 16.555587
2025-12-07 0.517524 1.007630 1.866105 3.446950 6.240771 10.907809 19.193637
2025-12-14 0.438996 0.906366 1.768532 3.434617 6.516231 11.884029 21.800367
2025-12-21 0.378317 0.825388 1.691097 3.440932 6.816943 12.928946 24.639887
2025-12-28 0.358701 0.821558 1.756801 3.722857 7.657726 15.023400 29.587623
2026-01-04 0.321327 0.772843 1.724944 3.806443 8.127015 16.486490 33.536953
2026-01-11 0.291311 0.734066 1.706283 3.911979 8.650141 18.106061 37.960522
2026-01-18 0.256378 0.678295 1.644688 3.923097 8.994043 19.441986 42.041963
2026-01-25 0.216890 0.603445 1.528144 3.795856 9.028848 20.165732 44.993080
2026-02-01 0.179840 0.526429 1.392510 3.601867 8.887199 20.502932 47.181192
2026-02-08 0.155787 0.478223 1.317407 3.537962 9.029972 21.462592 50.809195
2026-02-15 0.136785 0.439616 1.259246 3.505488 9.240458 22.593804 54.942378
2026-02-22 0.128641 0.430617 1.276695 3.668148 9.946480 24.929264 62.055741
2026-03-01 0.115730 0.404251 1.242306 3.688310 10.297892 26.476939 67.512383
2026-03-08 0.103251 0.376309 1.198395 3.675281 10.561743 27.845176 72.695445
2026-03-15 0.092939 0.353000 1.163621 3.682058 10.878592 29.378385 78.446623
2026-03-22 0.092128 0.361931 1.227041 3.982593 12.033391 33.133696 90.094562
2026-03-29 0.085436 0.348588 1.219493 4.071682 12.613015 35.484747 98.443951